US China War Impact On Globalization

Abstract

This article examines the U.S.–China trade war, initiated in 2018 through successive tariff escalations and retaliatory measures, and analyzes its broader repercussions for globalization. Drawing on mixed-methods evidence from trade data, policy documents, industry reports, and expert analyses dated 2018–2024, the study finds that the conflict has accelerated supply-chain diversification and “China+1” strategies, weakened multilateral trade governance, and prompted emerging-market realignments. It argues that while some adaptive integrations (e.g., regional trade agreements, nearshoring) offer resilience, the overall effect has been to fragment global trade networks and erode confidence in open-trade norms. The article employs a political-economy framework combining global value chain theory with geopolitical risk analysis to interpret these dynamics. Policy recommendations include reinforcing multilateral institutions to manage geopolitical tensions, encouraging diversified yet open supply-chain networks, and designing business risk-management strategies that balance resilience with integration. For governments, multilateral bodies, and firms, the findings underscore the need to balance strategic autonomy with cooperation to sustain globalization under geoeconomic rivalry.

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